Final destination is in view
REGINA—Heading into Saturday at the inaugural Montana’s Brier it feels like fans have been collectively reading a Choose Your Own Adventure that was always leading to the same place.
Underdogs and upsets shocked and thrilled along the journey, but with the destination in view—Sunday’s finale—it seems like all roads lead to Rome, or in this case Regina, and a 1 vs 2 “page” playoff between the top two men’s teams in Canada.
An M. Night Shyamalan twist is still possible. Perhaps Slider, the mascot, will see dead people. Which, given the age of the average curling fan, is entirely possible.
Looking back to Friday, the 1 vs 2 Qualifier (that new format again) was kind of a big deal. The winners move to within one victory of the championship final while the losers drop to three games away.
According to oddsmakers, the chance of a Brendan Bottcher (Alberta) or Brad Gushue (Canada) victory was 91%. Both teams won their qualifiers by identical 9-7 scorelines—Bottcher over Saskatchewan’s Mike McEwen and Gushue over Manitoba’s Reid Carruthers/Brad Jacobs combo.
Let’s first look at the two other teams making up the 9%.
Saskatchewan vs Manitoba
The roars for Team Saskatchewan were mostly subdued on Friday night, as the hosts took on Jamie Koe’s Territories squad. The knowledgeable curling crowd did not cheer when Jamie missed his last stone of the second end and surrendered a steal of one to the hosts.
Then again in the third end.
And the fourth. And so on.
With a scoreboard of stolen singles It was a slow 7-0 drip of defeat for NWT who had a great week, and received a well-deserved standing ovation from the fans after the game.
Saskatchewanians cheer for the underdog and if Jamie Koe had been up against another opponent, everyone in the Brandt Centre would have been on his side.
On a nearby sheet of ice, the Carruthers/Jacobs partnership came to a Brier end as Dunstone won 6-2.
The defending Brier finalists all fired their stones in 90s while their provincial rivals clocked in the 60s—except for Jacobs, who threw a lowly 55%.
Team McEwen faced Team Dunstone only once earlier this season, a 6-5 win for the Manitobans at the PointsBet Invitational back in September. McEwen will have hammer in the first end and the support of over 5,000 fans in the stands. They sit at +110 but the early money has been flooding in for Dunstone, who sits at -145. Winning the whole thing is a long shot for both with Dunstone at +725 and McEwen at +850.
Matt curled 90% in the win against Carruthers and he’s played well on Brier final weekends, both last year and in 2021.
Mike has had a great Regina Brier, taking home the hardware for first team all-star skip, but he was less sharp against Bottcher and it made the difference in their Friday afternoon contest.
Now that we’ve prepared you for the improbable, let’s dig further into the plausible.
Alberta vs Canada
Team Bottcher swapped deuces for five ends in their battle with McEwen and Team Saskatchewan. It was an either-or game until Alberta pulled away with a steal of two in the eighth end.
Gushue had a 5-3 lead over Jacobs at halftime and added another three-count, their second of the match, in the seventh end. Carruthers (or is it Jacobs?) did score a three and also a late steal, but to no avail.
The Bottcher foursome are the second-ranked team in the world and No. 1 in Canada, over 113 rankings points ahead of Gushue. Subtract 113 from Brad’s seventh-place world ranking points and you pass 13 teams, landing at Daniel Casper from Minnesota.
This version of Team Bottcher has beaten Gushue six times in their 10 head-to-head matches, winning five of the last seven. Bottcher is a wafer-thin favourite at -120 or 54%. Gushue is -105 or 51%.
Yes, these teams are giving over 100%, or at the very least they give a 5% return for gambling proprietors.
As a team, the Bottcher gang have a team shooting percentage of 91% with Brendan at 85%. Gushue as a team are 90% and Brad sits at 88%. Gushue has only been below 90% once in his last five games and the team hasn’t dipped below 92% since Monday morning.
Based on recent performance, Gushue appear to have a vice grip on their championship belt and it will take a Mike Tyson left hook to knock it from their grasp.
Of the challengers this week, Team Bottcher seems the most ready to take it.
