Recent history says … perhaps
Four years ago, John Shuster, Tyler George, Matt Hamilton and John Landsteiner won USA’s first Olympic gold medal in curling. This is the third in a series of three articles. If you missed the first two, go to the Strategy tab and look for the two 2018 “Flashbacks.”
Here I will look at the improbability behind their incredible run and explain how a USA gold medal helped this writer fulfill a lifelong dream.
Late into the night on February 18, 2018, John Shuster must have had thoughts. Team USA had just collapsed in the second half of their game against Norway’s wily veteran Thomas Ulsrud. USA had led 4-3 after the fifth end break but the Norwegians took three, stole one and stole another to lead 8-4 heading into the final ends; the outcome all but decided. Team Shuster now had four losses and only two wins.
The loss against Sweden had been understandable. Niklas Edin was a two-time world champion. Since adding Tyler George at third, Shuster was 4-6 heading into this event against the Swede and the outcome might have gone either way. But it was the way USA lost to Edin that may have lingered, a drubbing. Sweden led 7-1 after four ends and USA had to toss them up and back until they were permitted to shake hands after eight ends.
There was the sting of an earlier upset loss to Italy, a team that had never beaten John previously. The defeat to Japan in their fifth match of the event also left some damage. Shuster was 7-2 previously against Yusuke Morozumi but a surprising 8-2 loss dropped USA to 2-3 with only four games remaining in the round robin. Add this comeback victory for Norway and Team USA left little hope to most viewers a winning record was possible, much less a gold medal.
Facing Canada in their next game, a must win to have any chance to make the playoffs, what chance did Shuster have? Not much …
Chart shows the 2018 Olympic win probability for Team Shuster by each end, beginning with Draw 9 against Canada. The horizontal axis shows John’s record as a skip against the opposing skip heading into each game.
What was John Shuster thinking that night? Everything which came before led him to this moment. The weight of USA curling expectations sat on his shoulders at yet another Olympics and many likely thought “here we go again.”
The run that ended in a gold medal is an incredible accomplishment on its own. This performance wasn’t the 1980 Miracle on Ice. The men’s USA hockey team defeating the Soviet’s Red Army was perhaps more astonishing and improbable, but Shuster’s “Miracurl” might be more impressive.
The young American hockey players were massive underdogs in Lake Placid. They could have lost their game against USSR and no one would have batted an eye. The repercussions from not winning were insignificant. John Shuster had continuously NOT done it time and time before. He was a combined 4-14 as a skip at the previous two Winter Games. His name had become a verb in the Urban Dictionary. To “Shuster” meant “to fail to meet expectations, particularly at a moment critical for success or even slightly respectable results.”
After a decade at the top of USA men’s curling, it was unclear if John could fight through memories of failure on the biggest stages and get his body and mind to execute when it mattered. Another dismal Olympics might leave him questioning why he ever laced up a slider in the first place.
Team USA wasn’t the favorite, but they had the talent to beat every country in this event. One memory to resurrect was their experience coming from behind. In the last two world championships, Shuster had finished 8-3, each time losing early and battling back to reach the bronze medal game (winning in 2016). Just 10 months before, at the worlds in Edmonton, they started 2-3 and ran the table to reach the playoffs at 8-3.
Could they do it again?
On the most recent video podcast episode of Rock Logic (graphic above), Shuster’s third Tyler George shared his thoughts on what happened over those 24 hours between Norway and Canada on February 18 and 19. John was able to shake off every sliver of doubt that had built up over his many past attempts. Team USA grabbed an early lead against Canada, but their control wavered after a steal in the eighth end by Canada and Shuster was tied heading into the final two ends. According to Tyler, something switched with John in that game. He was able to get it done. A deuce by USA in nine was matched by Koe in the 10th but John was able to regroup and win it in the extra-end.
This was a great accomplishment to defeat Canada, but the odds were still stacked against them. USA’s Win Probability had doubled, but from a measly 2% to 4%.
Their next opponent was Peter De Cruz. The Swiss skip had beaten them twice in the playoffs at the 2017 world championships, including an 7-5 loss in the bronze medal match. According to Tyler, the team struggled, but John played outstandingly well and two three-enders by USA were the difference.
At 4-4, USA needed a win over Great Britain in their final round robin game to make the playoffs. Their chance at gold had crept up to 10%. Shuster took a deuce with hammer in the first end and forced Kyle Smith to a single in the second. Their control position quickly vanished as Great Britain stole singles over the next two ends. If anxious thoughts crept in, they were quickly shoved aside as USA cracked three points to retake control before sealing the win with a steal of four in the eighth end.
I wrote about their semifinal victory over Canada, and you can hear Tyler and Jared Allen examine the critical eighth end on the Rock Logic podcast. As the chart shows, it took until the fourth end of the gold medal game for USA to become mathematical favorites to win gold.
Something happened to John Shuster over those few days in China in 2018. Ghosts and demons were exorcised and John was able to execute to the highest level when it mattered the most, and came out on top.
Can he do it again? Perhaps. For those watching this Olympics, and for John himself, no doubt remains. It is possible. It has been proven, against remarkable odds, to be possible.
EPILOGUE: Shuster’s gold medal victory in PyeongChang was great for John, his team and all of USA curling. It also provided me a special opportunity that would not have come about from a win by Koe or Edin. After returning home, Team Shuster discovered via social media Daryl Morey’s wife Ellen loved curling and her favorite player was Tyler George. Daryl was then GM of the Houston Rockets (now President of the Philadelphia 76ers) and connected with Tyler during a road trip to Minnesota against the Timberwolves. Daryl is also the co-chair and founder of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. I had submitted papers to the conference in years past but had all but given up on any chance of being admitted to speak at the conference. Through Tyler’s connection to Daryl, Gerry Geurts and I were able to present the “Evolution of Curling Analytics” at the 2019 Sloan Conference and I later wrote about our experience for The Curling News.