Canadian Olympic Trials Preview: Men

As mentioned in yesterday’s women’s preview, that event has four likely winners, all clearly ahead of the other five teams. An upset would shock many observers and perhaps terrify Curling Canada, but given the history of Canadian Trials champions an upset is possible.

The men’s bracket is very different. If all but one of these nine teams were to win, it would not be a complete surprise (think Buster Douglas) though some would utter a quiet “Wow, that happened?” Seven teams are in the top 10 of the world rankings, with Jason Gunnlaugson a few spots behind in 13th spot. The top seven of these highly ranked skips also competed in the 2017 Trials, and four of them were on the ice in 2013.

Looking back at that 2013-14 season, the game was at a crossroads. The Big Three of Jeff Stoughton, Glenn Howard and Kevin Martin passed the torch to Brad Jacobs and Kevin Koe, who were quickly followed by Brad Gushue and now perhaps Brendan Bottcher. Many of the 2021 teams might be nearing their peak, are peaking now, or are just sliding over to the other side. Whoever wins this event will be thoroughly battle-tested for the Olympic challenges to follow.

As a reminder, data comes from head to head wins and losses, scoring, and winning percentages both historical (lifetime of each skip) and over the last Olympic cycle (start of the 2018-19 season). Analysis is weighed more heavily on the past four years. Using Bill James’ log5 method and his Pythagorean expectation, I estimate the expected wins of each team. Where sample sizes are small (Horgan) more guesswork takes place.

The result is an attempt to place teams into four groups: Favorites, Contenders, Challengers and Underdogs. I remind the reader that past results do not necessarily predict future outcomes. This field is deep and the level of play will drive results to the narrowest of margins. Kevin Koe started 0-5 in the 2013 Trials but could have been 3-2, losing close games to Martin, John Epping and John Morris. Four years later, Koe won several close games and started 5-0 on his way to victory.

FAVORITES

Four teams have close to five expected wins for the round robin and positive point differentials (all other teams have scored fewer against this field). One or two of them may come out of the pack to blitz the field, like Howard and Martin in 2009, Martin and Jacobs in 2013 or Chelsea Carey and Rachel Homan four years ago. One of these teams could get hot and go undefeated, and though it seems unlikely (around 6%) it has happened twice; Jacobs in 2013 and Carey in 2017. Most likely, matchups between these four teams will be legendary and outcomes will boil down to a few important shots deciding each team’s fate.

There are only three playoff spots in this event so if it goes chalk, one of these teams will be watching from the stands on the final weekend.

Team Brad Gushue didn’t qualify for the 2013 Olympic Trials. The defending world champions went 6-2 in 2017 and bowed out to Mike McEwen in the semifinal. After their Brier win in 2018, they appeared to fall back to an “average” team, by their standards at least. In 2018-19 they won the Elite 10 match play Slam in September, qualified at the next six Grand Slams, but only made one semifinal. The next seven Slams resulted in three finals and four semifinals. Spectacular play for most teams, but below the expectations they’d previously set.

A win at The National earlier this month has them heavy betting favourites at the Trials (+131 or 43%). They are 50-32 (61%) against the field since the 2018-19 season but if we remove a spotless 9-0 versus Jason Gunnlaugson it drops to 56%. Against Bottcher, Koe and Jacobs combined, the Gushues are only 18-22. They are possibly the most likely team to win, but at those odds I would take the field.

2013 Trials and Olympic champion Brad Jacobs is 56-39 (59%) versus this field over the past four years. They have a balanced record against all of their opponents except perhaps for Matt Dunstone, where they have the upper hand at 12-3. The last two Briers have been disappointments but in their previous 15 Grand Slams they qualified in all but one, reached two semifinals and five finals—winning four of them, the most of any Canadian team. At +310 they are just shy of 25% to win, according to Coolbet.

Team Jacobs are one of only two teams with a per game scoring below 10 (9.81), the other is Gunnlaugson (9.94). They play a control game and, perhaps more than other teams, if they secure last rock in the first end it is a significant advantage. In 2017, with Ryan Fry at third, the team appeared tight, not the same squad that wore the maple leaf in 2013 and 2014 at the worlds and Olympics. They started out 2-3 and finished at 3-5, two wins out of the playoffs.

Since the addition of two-time Olympian Marc Kennedy they have often reached or exceeded that same level of play from eight years ago. If they can get there this week, they have a great chance to return to the podium as champions.

Kevin Koe is the defending Trials champion. The only player still with him from that 2017 team is Ben Hebert, a two-time Olympian and 2010 champion (Martin). Grand Slams never appear to be Kevin’s primary goal. They have no wins and have only reached three finals in the past 15, all three years ago during the 2018-19 season. Kevin is 58-42 (58%) against this field over that time and has a winning record against all but Gushue (7-9).

Perhaps it’s the drawn-out schedule or sheer scale of the Brier/Trials championships, but large arena events are where Kevin seems to shine. Including the 2017 Trials and past three Briers, his record is 38-9, including two victories and a close loss to Brendan Bottcher in the 2021 Brier final. Third/second John Morris is a two-time Olympic champion (2010 with Martin and 2017 mixed doubles with Kaitlyn Lawes). In five Trials appearances his teams have a record of 26-14, including a win (2010), a final (2013) and a semifinal loss—with Kevin Koe at third—back in 2005.

Kevin is 46 years old and John is 42. Kevin Martin was 47 in 2013 when he reached the semis in his final Canadian Olympic Trials and though this may not be the last appearance for Kevin and John, it could be their last great opportunity.

Team Bottcher are the defending Brier champions and have a 59-32 (65%) record against this field over the past four years, the highest of any team. They are 24-23 against the other favourites above. They are the only team with a full point differential (1.03) and surprisingly have the second highest per game point total with 10.62 (Horgan is 11.53).

Like the teams already mentioned, Team Bottcher hovers around five expected wins. Three Grand Slam victories all came three years ago but they consistently are in the mix at every event and are sure to be this week as well.

CONTENDERS

The data shows very little difference among the next four teams (all have around three expected wins) but tradition says I have to sort out Contenders from the Challengers, so here we go ...

Mike McEwen lost the final of the 2017 Olympic Trials to Kevin Koe. Third B.J. Neufeld then departed, joining Koe at third and winning a Brier in 2019. Since then, Mike teamed up with provincial rival Reid Carruthers and their Manitoba supersquad has not lived up to expectations. They are 17-39 against this field (5-24 against the Favorites), getting outscored by 1.1 points per game. With his previous squad, McEwen was 108-82 against the other skips in this event.

You could argue this team are Challengers given their recent play but Mike has the abilities to be the best player on the ice ... and if he can reach those heights this week, he may once again find himself in the final game.

If not for a shot or two, Team Matt Dunstone might have appeared in the 2021 Brier final eight months ago. Dunstone is 32-50 against this field since the fall of 2018 with a point differential of -.78. They are 6-21 against Bottcher and Jacobs over that stretch, and despite their victory at the 2019 Masters, it’s the only Grand Slam in which they won a quarterfinal—and they’ve only qualified in four of the previous 13 of these events.

You could argue they are Challengers but their play at the recent Brier coupled with their progress over the past two years indicates this is a team on the way up. They will need to climb even higher this week, but doubt rarely creeps in when you are young and improving.

They’ve beaten these opponents on some of the biggest stages and know they have the abilities to do it again.

CHALLENGERS

Team John Epping has been outscored by the field over a point per game (-1.05) and their record sits at 29-49 (37%) since the 2018-19 season. They’ve only beaten Bottcher twice in 10 tries over that span. Epping has shown he can beat Gushue (15 wins), Koe (18) and Jacobs (15). A total of 48 wins, many coming prior to 2014 Olympic gold medalist Ryan Fry joining the team. Over that span, however, those three skips have beaten John 83 times. In their last 15 Grand Slams they’ve had a win, two finals losses and reached the semifinals, but they also failed to qualify in nine events, including six of the last seven.

Inconsistency is the problem, particularly this season, but if John can block out the scar tissue that can build up over years of being almost good enough (but not quite), they could find their groove this week and be in the mix at the end of the week.

Jason Gunnlaugson was an underdog in his first Trials (2009) where he finished winless at 0-7. Twelve years later he’s ranked 13th in the world and has shown he can battle anyone here (except maybe Gushue who is 11-1 against him). In the last four years, Gunner is 7-8 versus Koe and Jacobs and has shown he can execute under pressure, winning his first purple heart against McEwen in the 2020 Manitoba provincial final.

Gunnlaugson started 5-2 at the 2020 Brier but dropped three straight to fall out of playoff contention. He again made the Championship Pool at the 2021 Brier but fell back again to 6-6. Odds to win of +2900 aren’t enough to entice me, but look for an improvement from 2009—and if the competition is tight and a few shots go their way, being in the mix late is within their reach.

UNDERDOGS

Tanner Horgan is 23 years old, two years younger than Gunnlaugson was in 2009. Despite his youth and lack of substantive Grand Slam experience, he’s built a record of 12-21 against this field, including 8-9 over the last four seasons. He’s 2-10 against the Favorites, with both victories against Northern Ontario rival Brad Jacobs. 

The Horgan squad, now in its second year after an amalgamation with southern Ontario’s Scott MacDonald team members, had a fabulous performance at the Pre-Trials, rebounding from their only loss (against Gunnlaugson) with a strong win over the legendary Glenn Howard to secure their spot in this event.

Team Horgan holds a world ranking of 18 and though it’s likely they won’t play more than eight games, the experience will be invaluable as they look forward to moving up in the future.