Eye-popping misadventures continue
It’s midweek at the 2021 Canadian Curling Trials and with only a third of round robin games remaining, storylines are starting to unfold, and leaders are separating from the pack. As often happens at this event the proceedings have not gone without a few eye-popping misadventures.
The first three days had enough mayhem to fracture the pacemakers of most fans, but who knew it was just an appetizer for the main course on Tuesday night. Jennifer Jones, six times national champion, was up against provincial rival Kerri Einarson. With two losses already, Einarson, the two-time defending STOH champion, needed a win to keep up with Jones’ record of 4-0. The sailing appeared to go smoothly at first, with steals of two in each of the first three ends giving Einarson a six-point cushion.
Many at home were wondering why the TV guys couldn’t move to the more closely contested game between Rachel Homan and Tracy Fleury. Homan was one up with hammer in a tight, well played contest.
Jennifer rebounded with a three but then coughed up a deuce to Einarson the very next end, with the score then 8-3 at the halfway mark. Meanwhile Homan was tied 3-3 against the undefeated Fleury.
TSN must have had a premonition to stick with the main game, because within the hour, Team Homan surrendered four stolen points—one in the sixth end and three in the eighth—and trailed 7-3 while Jones, remarkably, tied up her contest with a deuce in the sixth end and her own steal of three in the eighth.
The runaway by Einarson became a last rock nail-biter in the final frame, her winning hit for two scraping by their own impeding rock by the width of a fingernail. At a score of 10-9, Team Jones had fought back to ultimately lose what is now the highest scoring (and perhaps most entertaining) game in Canadian Trials history, where neither team scored a single point with hammer.
Meanwhile, Team Homan were shaking hands after another steal in the ninth end of their match, and Tracy Fleury stood atop the standings at 4-0.
For gamblers, Einarson versus Jones offered even greater thrills. For the first time at a curling event, Coolbet has started offering live betting for each individual game selected for “featured” TV coverage. While the match is unfolding, bettors can select who will win the game (including point-spread options), which team will win the end, the total final score and even an Over/Under of 1.5 points within the next end. The odds are constantly changing, with bets staying open sometimes into thirds stones of each end.
My guest on the recent Rock Logic podcast episode Gambling On Curling, Matt Hall, shared that Coolbet.com was prepared to lose money with either team winning, based on the wild swings during the game. Jones was between 50 and 60 to 1 after going down six points and 80 to 1 beginning the eighth end. Matt admonished that curling is volatile at the best of times, but this game defied all explanation. While running live betting, he’ll build pages of notes on each team in preparation— in this case he threw them out after the fourth end.
Not to be outdone, the morning men’s draw offered a close second to the Jones roller coaster of the night before. To stay in the playoff race, Brendan Bottcher at 1-3 needed a win against provincial rival Kevin Koe. Up one in the fifth end, Bottcher flashed his attempt at a thin double and handed Koe a three spot and two-point lead. Kevin returned the favor the very next end and Bottcher’s three points moved the defending Brier champions ahead by one. Both teams took a breather with a simple blank in the seventh end then Koe scored another triple in the eighth off a Bottcher miss and cruised to a 9-7 victory. The odds of scoring three three-enders in the final six ends are around 1.5%.
Per Matt at Coolbet, in live betting Bottcher was a healthy underdog at +468 before scoring his three in the sixth end while Kevin dropped to +138 before end number eight. In their last 10-end game (2021 Brier final), the total score was six points (4-2). The Over/Under in this game opened at 10.5 and ended at 14.5. This train wreck of a match was the second worst game for Coolbet during the week.
Other notes …
It appeared Olympic hopes for Homan and Bottcher ended on Wednesday, along with those of the Matt Dunstone squad. Both Homan and Bottcher chose to extend their dream a little longer than some might have expected. Down 10-5 to Laura Walker without hammer, Homan chose to play the ninth end. Bottcher was down 7-4 in his evening match-up against Matt Dunstone and, also without hammer, chose to battle into the ninth end before shaking hands. Brendan may have had close to a 2% chance to win but Rachel’s odds were infinitely lower. Perhaps it was anger and frustration that kept them out there, but maybe they saw what Jennifer Jones had done less than 24 hours earlier and figured anything was possible.
The ice has been very line dependent, with the speed slower down the middle towards centre. Other than Tracy Fleury and Brad Gushue, most everyone has been fighting their draw weight at some point during the week.
Speaking of Gushue, Brad has made fantastic shots all week and, per his own comments, had some good fortune at times. Kevin Koe found similar fortune in 2017 on his way to a 5-0 start and the trip to PyeongChang. Perhaps Gushue could also find himself with a bye to the final game after end of day Friday. After a shocking loss on Wednesday evening, his ticket is not quite punched yet.
Since 2018, Gunnlaugson was 0-9 against the team from Newfoundland and Labrador but managed the upset with a spectacular draw on his first stone in the extra end. Brad was left with a high hard hope of a runback that never had a chance. Holding at three losses, the win keeps Gunner with playoff hopes while Gushue can secure first place overall by defeating Horgan and McEwen in his last two round robin matchups. Koe and Jacobs also sit at one loss but each dropped their round robin battle against Gushue, so he holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The women’s standings are messier with Fleury and Jones at the top with five wins each (Jones also has her loss to Einarson). Five teams are chasing with three losses and I’m hoping it might be possible Homan and Rocque—with four losses could find themselves a tiebreaker situation. Recall in 2013 there was a 6¼% chance of a five-way tiebreaker of teams at 3-4 (there were only eight teams in 2013). All but one team would have made it past the round robin into a playoff or tiebreaker. Perhaps it’s too fiendish to consider, but my fingers are tapping together in Mr. Burns anticipation that this scenario might take place. Look for an update from me early Friday morning on possible scenarios for the weekend.