Regina Brier Playoff Odds

REGINA—The dust has settled on the round robin of the 2024 Canadian men’s curling championship. 

Whichever Slytherin spell that had been cast earlier on the favourites in this field has now worn out. The Brier that was once flying over the cuckoo’s nest has settled into a performance as reliable as Lawrence Welk showing up on Sunday evening.

There were casualties along the way.

Four-time Brier and two-time world champion Kevin Koe managed only two victories in eight contests.

The other Koe, Jamie, stole an extra end victory over sixth-ranked skip (by percentage) Tyler Smith and Team PEI, sending Team Northwest Territories to the playoffs, 12 years after Jamie’s only other playoff run in 2012.

Aaron Sluchinski had a chance to knock out mighty Brad Gushue on Thursday afternoon. However, the two-time defending (and five-time) champion has been returning to form and presented too difficult a test for the Alberta winners. 

Team Canada’s playoff ticket was emphatically punched into the playoffs and into the 1 vs 2 qualifier against the winner of Pool A, Reid Carruthers.

Alas, it would have been great to see both the CAN/AB and NWT/PEI tilts featured on television.

Time to dive deeper into the final six teams that remain in the Tankard trophy hunt, and examine each of their chances of becoming the first winner of a Montana’s Brier.

Saskatchewan – Mike McEwen

At 89% and +6 in plus/minus, Mike McEwen has been the best skip all week. His percentage is only surpassed by one third (Marc Kennedy) and two seconds (Brett Gallant and E.J. Harnden).

Third Colton Flasch has big game experience, having won a Brier with Kevin Koe and skipping Saskatchewan, with the Marsh twins, to a tie-breaker win over Matt Dunstone in 2022.

The Sask champions were 30 to 1 and not considered a top contender coming into the event. 

 Percentages aside, they’ve had several close games and a loss to Nova Scotia so they’ve hardly dominating the field, but Mike can reach extraordinary curling levels. He showed this in numerous Slam wins, provincial championships (after initially losing a ton of such finals) and at the 2017 Canadian Olympic Trials—another narrow loss in the final.

Mike holds the hammer in the first end of the 1 vs 2 qualifier against Brendan Bottcher, whom he has beaten once in three tries this season. The odds for Team McEwen to win their next game is -141 (58.5%). Odds to win it all, +320 or 23.8%.

Forty-four years is an awfully long time to wait for a Brier title. The roof at the Brandt Centre may tear clean off if this happens.

Manitoba – Reid Carruthers/Brad Jacobs

Brad and Reid are not a pair many would have figured for success. Looks can be deceiving, and their on-ice collaboration appears to be in sync. Brad’s percentages have been up and down, with games in the 70s and 90s, while overall team results are low (seventh) compared to their opponents in these playoffs … but they have seven wins and just one loss, to Schneider of BC.

Gushue has lost to Carruthers in three of four meetings this season and this Team ’Toba looks confident they can win the whole thing. Coolbet has them a slight underdog (with hammer) against Gushue (+105) and +295 (25.3%) to finish on top Sunday night.

Alberta – Brendan Bottcher

Like co-favourite Brad Gushue, Bottcher stumbled this week with a loss to a team they were expected to beat. As it turned out, the game with Northern Ontario’s Trevor Bonot—another underdog in the early running who faded in the end—had no impact on their results, and the Thursday night game against Carruthers was the deciding factor in who landed at the top of Pool A.

That loss sends Bottcher over to Pool B and a game against McEwen, rather than a battle against Gushue. If Bottcher should lose to McEwen, Jamie Koe is waiting; the path is still difficult but no more dangerous than what they could have faced.

Odds in this game are +105 (48.8%) and to win it all, +285 (26%).

Canada – Brad Gushue

Is it possible that zero trips to the legendary Patch can provide energy at the end of a long week? This team seems to build as these long Brier weeks drag on—the E.J. Harnden pickup sure seems seamless, doesn’t it—and three of their best games in shooting percentage came in their last three contests.

They may have found their groove, and a win against Carruthers would give them a great opportunity to leapfrog into the finals just as they are hitting their stride.

+180 to win it all and -139 in the 1 vs 2 qualifier against Carruthers.

Manitoba – Matt Dunstone

Matt, BJ, Colton and Ryan have only lost to two teams this week, and they are both above them in standings and the world curling rankings. It appears they may have to beat both Gushue and Bottcher if they are to conclude this Brier with a victory.

Matt is the third-ranked skip by shooting percentage and nearly took down Gushue in last year’s final.

They are 2-2 versus Gushue this season. Starting without hammer does pose a challenge but Matt has played the underdog role before and found success.

Coolbet has them at 10 to 1 to overcome these obstacles and take home the ultimate prize.

Northwest Territories – Jamie Koe

This team rallied fans early (a victory over Gushue will do that for you) but stumbled coming in, shaking hands early against McEwen and then Sluchinski. On Thursday night they were two down with two ends remaining and it appeared the magical run was coming to an end.

Then PEI skip Tyler Smith did something we’d not seen all game … and missed a draw in the extra end.

The script has the Territories playing on Friday, but odds are heavily against them making it to Saturday. 500 to 1 to win may not get much action, but did anyone think they could beat Gushue in the round robin?

The challenge now becomes: if Carruthers pulls out a win and Gushue drops to the 3 vs 4 qualifier – can they beat Gushue twice in one event?