{"time":1777121556031,"blocks":[{"id":"Erlrc4rzeF","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The World Mixed Doubles Curling Championship is underway in Geneva and as always, the early conversation revolves around favourites, recent results, and gut feeling. But step back for a moment, and a different picture starts to emerge."}},{"id":"14s8omDiBn","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"When we look at the team-based rankings from CurlingZone, the field becomes more structured – and in some cases, surprisingly misleading."}},{"id":"VZUsAoacqk","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This is not a country ranking. It’s a pair-specific performance model, built on results from the current season. "}},{"id":"1J1MXBATAZ","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"To estimate playoff probabilities, I combined:"}},{"id":"f-50bWlpOt","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• CurlingZone team rankings (primary signal)"}},{"id":"3SX9wzaOk-","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• Recent tour activity and consistency"}},{"id":"vjy_gB5TYf","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• Adjustments for elite pedigree (Olympic and world championship performance)"}},{"id":"ZasteSCDed","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• Format volatility (nine round-robin games → high variance)."}},{"id":"rh0c1ic7Jx","type":"image","data":{"caption":"Gill/Hewitt • Steve Seixeiro-World Curling","withBorder":false,"withBackground":false,"size":"full","alignment":"center","linkUrl":"","file":{"url":"https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/135f0a69-22de-49bf-9c07-012500318ccd.jpeg","width":2700,"height":1804}}},{"id":"sibGuj0Wmd","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Each pool sends three teams to the playoffs. With only nine pool games, the order of teams ranked roughly 1-6 can shift quickly – and sometimes a single shot can ripple through the standings."}},{"id":"btEd9oASeF","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Pool A: Four-Team Fight for Three Spots"}},{"id":"QsPoOzBa6Q","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Estimated playoff probabilities (Top 3)"}},{"id":"ImgbbdMjDm","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Australia (Gill/Hewitt) 77%"}},{"id":"U2tlZvHjHW","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Japan (Koana/Aoki) 66%"}},{"id":"yR8JgK-Q9P","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Sweden (Westman/Ahlberg) 58%"}},{"id":"pHWUmqTJBq","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Estonia (Kaldvee/Lill) 43%"}},{"id":"JfGsE6433d","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Norway (Kjærland/Brænden) 27%"}},{"id":"-7-DkTNpt9","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"China (Han/Yu) 22%"}},{"id":"Qa3wf4RYfc","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Others <10%"}},{"id":"HN0I6JCiR3","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"What stands out?"}},{"id":"3TBGiYTLQI","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Australia, Japan, and Sweden form a clear ranking-based top tier. But the most interesting team here is Estonia."}},{"id":"TR18xJkaDQ","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Marie Kaldvee and Harri Lill have been among the most active and successful teams on tour, yet their ranking (#17) still undersells their actual potential. In many ways, they are a legitimate contender who simply needs one of the top three to slip."}},{"id":"28ctlgsyx5","type":"image","data":{"caption":"Estonia in Cortina • CBC Olympics","withBorder":false,"withBackground":false,"size":"full","alignment":"center","linkUrl":"","file":{"url":"https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/f89a5227-0df0-4e3f-bf89-4ebdd6078ef4.jpeg","width":1820,"height":784}}},{"id":"lEnDXGOQcI","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"They also carried strong visibility into curling through their Olympic campaign. Now the focus shifts fully to results – and this is exactly the type of group where execution matters more than reputation."}},{"id":"A2LrMeLpM-","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Norway and China add another layer of uncertainty. If either finds early rhythm, the race for the top three could expand quickly beyond four teams."}},{"id":"owqgTJ8lBN","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Pool B: Two Favorites and a Structured Chase"}},{"id":"jmUtKP5MZS","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Estimated playoff probabilities (Top 3)"}},{"id":"VvkAcwkMej","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Korea (Kim/Jeong) 90%"}},{"id":"L87NsbVtKB","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Italy (Constantini/Mosaner) 80%"}},{"id":"MiozFWyjMh","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Canada (Lott/Lott) 40%"}},{"id":"zhOtog0T3O","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Scotland (McMillan/Bryce) 33%"}},{"id":"fZXkkiK_Se","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Finland (Immonen/Sipilä) 14%"}},{"id":"3wFegU7HIy","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"USA (Kawleski/Kauffman) 13%"}},{"id":"vmadNQe7rY","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Hungary (Udvardi-Palancsa/Tatár) 12%"}},{"id":"1RA134bJIc","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Others <10%"}},{"id":"N6oGTlEevE","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The obvious – and the misleading"}},{"id":"QLy1GmhmPr","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"On paper, Korea and Italy lead the pool. But they do so for very different reasons."}},{"id":"3QwMTl0St8","type":"image","data":{"caption":"Korea in Cortina • Anil Mungal-The Curling News","withBorder":false,"withBackground":false,"size":"full","alignment":"center","linkUrl":"","file":{"url":"https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/9671c0bd-4178-458c-9173-b8e0ba87381c.jpeg","width":2550,"height":1702}}},{"id":"Cp1Uo41xvS","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Korea (Kim/Jeong): high ranking, consistent results → the highest floor in the pool."}},{"id":"ntWd9-hgkx","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Italy (Constantini/Mosaner): a relatively modest ranking (#30), but arguably the most proven elite pair in the field."}},{"id":"a9Cevlj_u2","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Italy is the classic case where ranking lags behind reality. Their Olympic and world championship pedigree elevates them beyond what current-season points alone would suggest."}},{"id":"qB_msrYdet","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The real battle: third place"}},{"id":"7A6BvGocDv","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This is where the structure of the pool becomes clearer. Rather than one large group of equal contenders, there are distinct tiers within the chase."}},{"id":"i49N-NwU5r","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Canada and Scotland emerge as the leading challengers for the third playoff spot, with stronger underlying results and a more stable baseline level."}},{"id":"2brhJb05s2","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"USA sits just behind as the most dangerous disruptor – capable of beating anyone in the group when momentum swings their way."}},{"id":"vLz81Oi0DI","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Finland and Hungary remain within reach, but likely need to outperform expectations across the full round robin."}},{"id":"ThmwM4F7vT","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"The gap is not huge, but it is meaningful. In practice:"}},{"id":"CeK1lAB6AK","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• Canada and Scotland are best positioned to control their path"}},{"id":"50NLsPgYmT","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• USA is the most likely to break the expected pattern"}},{"id":"0BXQ5Do6BW","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"• Others need both strong performances and favourable results elsewhere."}},{"id":"gFaa9tOd9M","type":"image","data":{"caption":"Team Lott of Canada • Curling Canada","withBorder":false,"withBackground":false,"size":"full","alignment":"center","linkUrl":"","file":{"url":"https://deweb-519a7.b-cdn.net/post-images/432264a8-f9dc-489c-b3e2-641bff1d9642.jpeg","width":2580,"height":1714}}},{"id":"Sqi135lN1q","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Even with this structure, margins remain thin: 6-3 likely secures a playoff spot, 5-4 keeps teams on the edge, and 4-5 will rarely be enough."}},{"id":"o5LTUU8EJC","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Final thought"}},{"id":"u_72FIwfmX","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Mixed doubles does not reward reputation – it rewards timing."}},{"id":"7tJtfNFx_R","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Across nine games, variance is high, momentum is fragile, and the difference between advancing and going home can come down to a single moment."}},{"id":"68tjatyUrz","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"So the key question is not simply who the best teams are. It is this... which teams can stay just slightly above expectation for nine games?"}},{"id":"uwVKCztUzK","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Because in mixed doubles, that is often enough."}},{"id":"em_T6s7EUj","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"This championship is available on The Curling Channel – single game viewing can be purchased, and a full event pass costs USD 19.99."}}],"version":"2.31.5"}

Curling Truth and Reconciliation