Heightened tension and suspense in the final
The final three games of the 2025 Brier conjured every emotion from fans and players.
While the semifinal might have been the most entertaining Brier curling game of this decade, the championship final gave fans heightened tension and suspense.
Blank ends abound in the first four frames and just one lonely and misinformed fan yells “boring”. I wanted to scream “it’s not” but that is improper protocol for one sitting on the media bench.
A triple by Colton Lott in the first end helps Dunstone maneuver rocks into position for a low-risk chance at two points. It appeared Matt could have rolled over and freeze to a Jacobs stone on his first shot, but the Manitoba squad appears comfortable with their result.
(Video below courtesy Curling Canada Plus)
Brad schools them by making the long double and a deuce is averted.
The second end is similar but different than the first, ending again with a long double by Brad to avoid falling behind by two points. Great banter is caught by TSN as Kennedy quips “back in the final baby” and Brad responds with “I have eight more ends in me, that’s it”. (34:27). Through the first two ends, if either of these double attempts had been missed, Jacobs win probability would drop below 25%.
End three—before Kennedy’s first stone there are six rocks in play. Then there are less, and the shape of the end has changed.
How much more granite do you need? With condolences to the blank-haters, players like Marc are proficient at throwing big weight and removing several tonnes of granite in one attempt.
Like this one. (Video below courtesy Curling Canada Plus)
If you want thin striking bands, shaping rocks that ricochet like pinballs so you can cheer at explosive quadruple takeouts, then. you have to accept zeroes on the scoreboard as well.
The fourth end lacks firepower but we do hear “shit” from Brad on his final shot of the end. A reminder: TSN does great work, and often gives fans extra nuggets not seen or heard in person.
When Jacobs barely misses a cross-house double in the fifth end, Dunstone is finally able to capture his deuce. Thus far it’s been a clinical performance with Manitoba avoiding real danger for the first half of the game.
Some, again, may complain this 2-0 score is disappointing. Only if you are reading the linescore and not watching the game. If you are someone who wants the assurance of higher scoring, watch mixed doubles and its flip-flop of hammer and repetitive rock placement.
For me and the vast majority of curling fans, the ability to retain hammer and scoreboard differential (not total points) has provided an entertaining sport for over 400 years (with the possible exception of 1989 to 1991).
A force in the sixth puts Manitoba in the driver’s seat, one up with hammer and with four ends remaining. Dunstone has a 90.3% win probability but as we’ve seen during pressure moments in the Brier, Scotties and Canadian Olympic Trials, a lot can happen in the final four ends.
The seventh end includes a shot that will be analyzed for years to come. It may not reach the level of whether Kevin Martin should have thrown away his first stone against David Murdoch at the 2009 Worlds, but it might be added to the list of debates over a beverage in your curling club lounge.
A physicist might tell us the shot is possible, but it appeared Matt could only survive a wafer-thin rub on his target stone, or a steal would be the result.
I’ve written before about the exponential decrease in room for error as you hit a smaller portion of a stone. The fraction in this attempt appeared to be thinner than a grain of sand. However, the draw for one is no “gimme” and the opportunity to win the Brier, right here and now, had to be enticing—a single point and two-shot lead with three ends to go is an 84% win probability but scoring two or three here puts the game away.
In retrospect, the out-turn may have been a better choice as Manitoba ended up sweeping for curl to miss the guard.
(Video below courtesy Curling Canada Plus)
The eighth, an old school boring blank, is the end that has generated interest and people are talking about. Jacobs brought their first stone into the rings and Dunstone removed it rather than placing a corner. “He’ll play a delayed corner” I thought. Nope, he hit again on Ryan Harnden’s second shot and the end was over.
By auto-blanking the eighth end, Manitoba made a strategic choice to discard an opportunity to apply pressure, with minimal risk of a force, and score two.
It is an opportunity lost and though this may be Matt’s normal pattern, it could have been the adrenaline of what just transpired, and a conscious choice to take this end “off” and give the team an opportunity to catch their breath and refocus.
Given the previous play and how Team Dunstone had put Alberta in difficult positions throughout the game, it appeared a corner guard could be advantageous, but choosing to blank is far from being the cataclysmic decision that determined the outcome.
The next end was a mirror of Dunstone versus Gushue the night before. The challenge to plotting the ninth end to score two or blank without being forced to a single. Once again, it’s a fascinating watch and becomes strategically sterile if you apply some new rule where hammer flips the following end.
The 10th end had all the suspense and tension a fan could ask for in the championship final of a great sporting event. Curling’s un-even 40/60 coin-flip of down one with hammer (38.9% win probability) in the last end almost always produces a photo finish.
The 2025 Kelowna Brier culminated in three historic games, then the gates closed at Prospera Place and the dehumidifiers were packed away. There was agony for Manitoba and their fans, another trophy to fill the cases of three-fourths of Team Alberta, and a comeback story for Brad Jacobs of Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.
Looking back 11 years ago, the passing of the Canadian men’s curling torch from Martin, Jeff Stoughton and Glenn Howard seemed destined to go to the Brad of Northern Ontario and not the one from Newfoundland and Labrador.
Jacobs turns 40 this summer, and his timeline to match Gushue’s six Brier titles is narrowing. But coming after a decade of round-robin success followed by playoff disappointment, this particular Brier title might feel like he’s won five more.
Postscript
Quebec skip Felix Asselin commented on Matt Dunstone’s strategy in the eighth end.
Tied with hammer beginning the end is 70.5% and beginning nine, it only reaches 72.2%. A deuce would have increased their chances to 91.8% while a force drops them to 66.1%.
In response to Felix’s social media post, three-time Brier champ Brent Laing questioned the data sources for win probability.
We could deep dive here into an MIT conference level of analysis but to summarize, it is a valid question, and numbers can provide supporting evidence but are not absolute.
Felix used Rock Logic podcast contributor Ken Pomeroy’s tool, which looks at recent seasons of men’s games between top 25-ranked teams. I’ve often stated analytics are only a guideline, and skips should consider the skill of opponents and the magnitude of the moment when applying odds to a possible outcome.
An interesting test from the end earlier. Per Ken’s chart, Manitoba’s chance of winning following the sixth was 90.3%. For top women’s teams, it’s 83%.
Let’s consider a comeback to be a win when a team is down one without hammer or three or more with hammer, after completing the sixth end. Looking at the past quarter-century of Canadian semifinal and championship finals, four-end comebacks include:
• Nova Scotia’s Colleen Jones over BC’s Kelley Law in 2001
• Quebec’s Marie-France Larouche over Ontario’s Sherry Middaugh (2004)
• Mark Dacey (NS) over Randy Ferbey (Alta.) in 2004
• Manitoba’s Jennifer Jones over Ontario’s Jenn Hanna (2005)
• Jones, again, in 2010 against PEI’s Kathy O’Rourke
• Ontario’s Krista McCarville over Jennifer Jones in 2016
• Kevin Koe (Alta.) over Mike McEwen (Man.) in 2017
• Alberta’s Chelsea Carey over Ontario’s Rachel Homan (2019)
• Jennifer Jones versus Kerri Einarson (2018)
… and the 2025 Brier final.
That’s 10 underdog wins out of 100 games. The team well ahead to win 90% of the time.