Olympic Curling Trials: Men’s Favourites

Only four men have won a Canadian Olympic Curling Trials and never won a Brier.

Mike Harris and his front end of Collin Mitchell and George Karrys won the silver medal in Nagano in 1998. Third Richard Hart went on to win the Brier in 2007 while handling third duties for Glenn Howard.

Jamie Korab won an Olympic gold medal playing lead for Brad Gushue in 2006 but lost that 2007 Brier final – to Hart – while representing Newfoundland. Korab’s back end of Brad Gushue and Mark Nichols eventually won a Brier, and then, a few more – six in total.

If you include the fifth/alternate players, Ken Tralnberg, Mike Adam and Caleb Flaxey are also on that list. Be sure to astound people with this trivia question at your next dinner party and see how popular you become.

Matt Dunstone and Colton Lott are hoping to be added to this list, and then hopefully removed on March 8 in St. John’s. Some other names who have yet to win a Brier are also hungry to join that list.

Veteran skips John Epping at 42 years old and Mike McEwen (45) are nearing their last attempts to put a maple leaf on their back. Both are exceptional shooters with the ability to outperform their opponent and raise their team’s level.

Oddsmakers have John with the edge this year heading to Halifax, but both are expected to chase Dunstone and Jacobs.

Using data, the eye test and firing darts towards a board, I’ve attempted to place teams into four groups: Favourites, Contenders, Challengers and Underdogs. Given the many lineup changes the past four years, and realization this event is inherently unpredictable, I’ve tossed out any data before the 2022-23 season.

This analysis uses at head-to-head wins and losses, scoring, and winning percentages between the competing teams. For example, neither of Dunstone’s losses to Bruce Mouat in the past two Grand Slam finals is included in our calculations. Bill James’ log5 method and his Pythagorean expectation are used to estimate the expected wins of each team.

None of these teams has a greater than 60% win percentage against their Trials opponents and everyone except Koe (40.9%) and Kleiter (21.4%) are at least .500 against the field.

A reminder that past performance does not guarantee future results. Past Trials have taught us that anything, no matter how strange or bizarre, is possible.

Favourites

Brad Jacobs (+140) leads the defending Brier champions and all team members have won this event before.

Marc Kennedy and Ben Hebert have done it twice, each with a different Kevin (Martin in 2009 and Koe in 2017). They know how to manage a long week, but unlike the Brier, they know they will have to be sharp and focused every draw. There are no Nunavuts at the Olympic Trials. If their bodies and age (they are 160 years old combined) hold up, they could all return to the Olympics again.

Second Brett Gallant is a defending Trials champ (with Brad Gushue) and is between five and eight years younger than his teammates. He’s already preparing for Cortina, where he’ll compete in mixed doubles.

They’ve had a strong start to the season with semifinal finishes in two Slams, a win at the Pan Continental and a runner-up finish at the PointsBet. Jacobs is 22-15 (59.5%) against the field. His squad is 5-1 against McEwen, 4-2 against Gushue and 5-5 against Matt Dunstone – but zero in their last four since beating Dunstone in the 2025 Brier final.

PF/G = 5.51, PA/G = 5.27

Predicted Wins = 4.3

Team Matt Dunstone (+145) have two victories this season, the PointsBet and AMJ Masters. Their other two Slam appearances resulted in runner-up finishes, both losses to Bruce Mouat.

For the past three and a half seasons, Matt has played more games against this field than any other skip. Dunstone has 76 games, with a 38-26 (59.4%) record. Remove Gushue from the equation and Dunstone is 35-18 (66%).

E.J. Harnden joined brother Ryan at front end less than a year ago and Team Dunstone nearly won the Brier just three months later. It’s interesting to speculate an alternate outcome in Kelowna if the Brier final were a best-of-three series. If the oddsmakers are right, we will get a chance to find out.

PF/G = 5.63, PA/G = 4.72

Predicted Wins = 4.9

Stand by for the Contenders, Challengers and Underdogs which will be posted shortly here at The Curling News.

Part 1 of this preview is here, while Part 2 – both encompassing the women’s field – is located here.