Olympic Trials Curling: You Go Home and Cry

It’s here. The most anticipated event in Canadian curling – the Olympic Trials, held in Halifax, 20 years after young Brad Gushue’s triumph over veteran Jeff Stoughton in the same arena.

If you are a Canadian curling fan, this is the week you’ve been waiting for. 

I think I enjoy it even more than the Olympics.

Why does this matter so much?

The fact is, the Canadian Olympic Trials have become THE event for Canadian competitors. All decisions, all schedules, all the team changes, all the commitments are aimed at getting to this week, to this event.

The Winter Olympic Games have become the driving force of competitive curling. It used to be the Brier and Scotties and, to a much lesser extent, the world championships. But now it is all about chasing Olympic glory.

While the Brier is still amazing, and I still would love to get back to another one, being a Canadian Olympic curling medallist will change your life. 

You can forever add OLY to your signature. 

You are quasi-famous. 

Assuming you can speak on camera, you can become a TV analyst.

You can become an elite level coach. 

It opens so many doors. And the fact is, it is unbelievably cool. 

It’s the damn Olympics! And it’s no surprise it is the main goal for the country’s elite players.

Twenty years ago, it meant an almost-guaranteed medal for Canada. Today, not so much. While curling has remained relatively niche around the world, the Olympic curling teams from other countries have not. They are full-time, government (and corporate) funded Olympic athletes. They have fan followings and can devote years to improving their skills at Olympic training sites in Scotland, Sweden, Switzerland, Japan, China or Korea. 

Canada is not the favourite in Olympic curling.

But the Olympic Trials in Canada are unique. While most countries have one or maybe two Olympic-calibre teams, every one of the 16 teams at the Canadian Olympic Trials would be competitive at the Olympics. We clearly have the most curlers, and the most depth – which in the end likely dilutes our chances, in that we cannot pour all our resources into one team – which is what makes the Trials such a high-stakes, winner-take-all-event. 

The Brier and STOH both have a second place. It sucks, but you still get a nice paycheque and some silver medals. 

There is no second place at the Trials. You go home and cry.

The pressure of the Trials final is unlike anything else in our game. You get to witness teams that are normally used to playing under intense pressure doing uncharacteristically awful things. 

Jennifer Jones, Olympic champ eight years earlier and likely the GOAT of women’s curling, threw a horrible club-curler level, softie outturn hit in the 10th end of the last Trials and then yelled “BOTH OF YOU” in the most panic-stricken sweeping call of all time. 

At the 2013 Trials in Winnipeg, Kevin Martin, two-time Olympic medallist (including gold) and one of the all-time great hitters, nosed a peel that cost him a shot at another Olympics. 

That is what makes the Trials such a compelling watch. You just never know.

So who is gonna win? Who will bravely wear the burden of the maple leaf on their back in Italy and represent Canadian curling against the likes of Mouat, Edin, Tirinzoni and other international favourites?

Let me make my brave and bold predictions… which are not as math-y as Kevin Palmer’s blizzard of content this week!  

Men’s favourites:

Gushue, Jacobs, Dunstone, Epping, McEwen

This season has been the year of the Brad Gushue retirement tour. Unfortunately, since announcing his plans, he has not played all that well (by his standards). Of course they will be the sentimental favourite in Halifax, and while it is tough to bet against a curler as great as “the Goosh” his GOAT status alone will not win him the Trials. I just do not see him winning with his current lineup.

Brad Jacobs has skipped the best team in Canada over the past two years. The new squad has – since unceremoniously dumping Brandon Bottcher just 18 months ago – been solid and is the reigning national champ. They have been good in the Slams, and Brad is likely the best clutch hitter in the game. 

They have the experience, with everyone on the team having Olympic experience. They are the betting favourites.

If Jacobs skips the hottest team over the last year, Matt Dunstone has been the hottest over the past six months. They’ve been the best Canadian Slam team this year, they won the PointsBet, and Matt seems to have found his groove. 

The teams has built up a lot of scar tissue of late, with a painful loss in the Brier final on their minds, as well as a tough loss in the last Slam at Lake Tahoe. The question is: will this shake their confidence or make them meaner? Time will tell. It feels like they are due.

Mike McEwen has had a solid rebirth with his Sasky foursome. They have been knocking on the door of the Brier of late, and are consistently solid in ’spiels. Colton Flasch is one of the best sweepers in the world right now – how bad does Mike have to throw an outturn to miss? 

I’m not sure they have the game to beat the other teams, but in 2023 and ’24 Mike played like the Mike of 2013.

John Epping skips an interesting team. He had almost been counted out of the competitive curling world a few years ago, but has found new life with a new squad. His play with the Horgan brothers has been excellent, and he has sneakily been qualifying at Slams and winning spiels. John is very much a feel player, and if he finds his groove, they can beat anyone.

The Others:

Kleiter, Koe, MacDonald

Jordon MacDonald leads the youngest team there. They are the product of Curling Canada’s recent efforts to develop U25 teams (side note: I discovered that U25 events do not require you to be under 25, but your team’s AVERAGE age must be under 25. I will be entering the next U25 event with myself, one of my current teammates and two jars of sperm. Average age 22!). 

Jordon has recently worked his way into the Slams, and qualified for the Trials just a few weeks ago by winning the Pre-Trials. They are hot, and will win games, but not enough to win the event.

Ryan Kleiter skips the team that most casual curling fans will look at and go “Who?” I can’t see this team doing well, although they have had some success on tour. They will gain valuable experience, but not much else.

Kevin Koe, our Olympic rep from eight years ago, has not fared well of late. They had a brutal Brier last year, and don’t seem to be on form. Kevin is a guy that can win all by himself, but I just don’t see it happening here.

PREDICTION:

Going off the beaten path… Epping gets red hot, makes a bunch of runbacks from outer space and makes it to the final, but loses to Matt Dunstone.

Dunstone over Epping in a tight final. Jacobs rounds out the final three.

Women’s

Previewing the field in the women’s event is a one-team affair. Anyone setting odds who does not have Rachel Homan as an overwhelming favourite has simply not been watching curling for the past two years.

Never in the history of the Trials has one team been such an odds-on favourite heading into the event. Rachel has skipped the best team in Canada by a long shot for a while. Does this mean she will win? Probably. But the fact is you never know. The new format – with a best-of-three finals series – definitely makes the odds of an upset even more unlikely. But ya never know.

So if not Rachel, who else?

Obviously we have to talk about Kerry Einarson. Three or four years ago, Canadian curling had two dominant teams, but a lot can change very quickly.

Einarson was rocked by Briane Harris’s sudden departure, and star second Shannon Birchard missed much of last year due to a knee injury. Birchard is back, and they have brought in Karlee Burgess to fill the lineup, but they have not yet returned to the form that had them at the top of Canadian curling. 

Can they capture magic in a bottle this week and find a way to win? It feels like it would be a bit out of left field, but weirder things have happened at the Olympic Trials.

Kaitlyn Lawes will likely be in the mix as. She has more experience with this level of pressure than anyone else, having been there, done that. She has two Olympic gold medals in her closet and a solid lineup in front of her. 

They have not yet shown the form required to win at this level but could put together a solid week and be in the mix.

My emotional, dark horse pick for the week is Christina Black. I have seen this Halifax team a lot on tour, I feel like they have been grinding and working harder to get to the next level, and have been showing a ton of game and grit at the past few Scotties. 

As a fan, I love teams that play with passion and wear their hearts on their sleeves.

As for the other four teams in the field – I have to rank them all around the same level. They are unlikely to make the final three, but they’re all solid teams that will win games: Corryn Brown of B.C., and Selena Sturmay and Kayla Skrlik of Alberta. 

And I will always cheer for fellow toe-tucker Kate Cameron, if only for her cool sliding broom.  

PREDICTION:

Homan over Black in the finals. Einarson rounds out the top three.

So there you have it. For fans heading to Halifax, enjoy the show. It is a great event in one of my favourite cities. 

I will be at a bonspiel, likely watching between games, popcorn in hand.