The Big Hairy Unacceptable Outcome

With the Olympics (hopefully) just around the corner, it’s time to think about the medals. Here’s a strategy puzzle I put to our Daily Curling Puzzle Facebook Group a few months ago.

It’s a big, big game today—Olympic-sized—and you’re at a crossroads. Your third’s got strong ideas of his own and he’s not too happy with your suggestions. Your lead and second look like they just don’t want to get in between you. They hate it when Mommy and Daddy fight. And maybe the guy’s right. He’s been around for a while, and he’ll probably go on and do great things—but perhaps not with you. Hmmm. What to do, what to do? Here’s the situation:

C’mon skip, give ’em a shot that crosses the great divide. What’s your call—and why?

“Peel, Johnny. It’s pretty early in the end.” (Kevin Martin, skip of Canada’s 2010 Olympic team)

“Shoot.” (John Morris, Kevin’s third)

I love listening to this entire team talk it out with their different mentalities and approaches to risk. I hope you’ll watch the entire end.

And I can’t say enough about how Kevin Martin handles the team here— from calling a time-out just because his third isn’t happy, to remaining calm when listening to all the arguments, to sticking with the call that he feels certain is right. A masterclass of team management in my opinion.

But let’s look at this decision point. Johnny Mo, the team’s third, is pretty keen to make a play on that No. 3 yellow in the four-foot, lie three with hammer and put  Norway’s Thomas Ulsrud under a lot of pressure. John wants to finish the game right here, right now. K-Mart isn’t so sure.

My friend and wise old guy, Mickey Pendergast, two-time reigning Canadian Masters champion (beating Al Hackner for his second title), suggests three questions before an end. “Ask yourself what’s the ideal outcome, what’s the acceptable outcome and what’s the unacceptable outcome. You keep those three things in mind when skipping an end and you won’t go far wrong.”

So what are the ideal, acceptable and unacceptable outcomes for Canada in this end? They’re up by one with hammer in the seventh end of a 10-end game. Ideally, they’d love to score two or more. A blank to take hammer and a one-point lead into the eighth would be fine too. They’d look to score in the eighth, force in nine and win in the 10th.

Even a force would be acceptable, if not ideal. Two points up with three ends to play would put them in a decent position to close out the game and win the Olympic gold medal.

But the Big Hairy Unacceptable Outcome looming over them is giving up a steal to go all-square. They’d surrender a good, commanding position to win gold and would be back in a tight dogfight where one or two half-shots might make the difference between fame and infamy.

What do we think about the rock situation? Sure, Canada could be lying three with hammer if Marc Kennedy takes away that side yellow and rolls to the eight-foot. They could go on, score the big end and win the gold right here, right now.

But to go for it now, they’d be leaving two centre guards stacked up and protecting that four-foot scoring area. Things could get really messy. Norway would probably loop a couple around, tap back those reds and sit in spots that make their stones hard to remove. Just to get at them, Canada’s got to clear the guards then start cleaning up. It could get very complicated—a tippy-tappy end played in the four-foot where someone typically scores one. That might not be the Canadians. And that steal is their Big Hairy Unacceptable outcome.

Alternatively, if Canada cleans out the middle now, simplifies the end and creates good clear conditions, Martin will, in the worst case, have a shot for his single to go two-up with three ends to play.

For Kevin, timing is a consideration. “It’s pretty early in the end,” you hear him call down the ice. Perhaps if this was Morris’s second shot, the Old Bear may have rolled the dice and played the hit, leaving the Norwegians just two shots to salvage the situation. With one of them, they’d have to try to get shot rock on the button. Make even the smallest of errors on that and Canada would score three or four and it’s handshakes all round. 

But, of course, we are where we are, and Martin just isn’t willing to flirt with the unacceptable outcome, even if it means giving up the chance to bag a game-ending score. Kennedy cleans up, Canada simplifies the end to take the unacceptable off the table and make sure they get their single at worst. As it turns out, Canada scores a fortunate two and wins the gold. Johnny Mo and K-Mart live to fight another day.

Watch the call and the shot unfold here.

So what are the Universal Skipping Principles (USPs) I’m taking away from this puzzle? Quite simply, know what my ideal, acceptable and unacceptable outcomes are, and think long and hard about going for an ideal outcome if it means risking an unacceptable one. Maybe acceptable is good enough.

Doug Wilson is the founder of the Daily Curling Puzzle Facebook group. He is currently writing a puzzle-based tactics manual with Wise Old Guy Mickey Pendergast, the two-time reigning Canadian Masters champion.