HALIFAX – The rain fell this morning. It’s the type of mist you don’t feel as it’s dropping but the accumulation weighs on you over the span of your walk to the arena… and removing your coat feels like discarding a heavy blanket.
The weight of expectations is coming down hard for a few teams at the 2025 Canada (Olympic) Curling Trials. The heaviest might be on Matt Dunstone who battled Brad Jacobs in their TSN televised matchup this morning.
After several draws bunched to the middle in the first end, Jacobs cleared the debris, and Matt considered coming around a lone Jacobs stone on the centre line. The team motioned and a peel was the result, producing a tension building blank end.
Dunstone’s final draw in the fourth comes stuck between weight and line and it appeared the team could have tried earlier to carve it for more curl. With a rub and roll open to the side of the button, Jacobs was left with a soft tap to score the first deuce of the game and take a 2-1 lead.
In the sixth, Dunstone can see what appears to be a wafer thin piece of Jacob’s stone on the button. He attempts to clip it out but wrecks on the guard and Jacobs steals for a 3-1 lead.
After a Dunstone force in seven, the eighth end includes a couple of failed runbacks from Brett Gallant and Marc Kennedy. Marc finally improves the situation on his last one but after a hit and roll on Matt’s final stone, Brad makes a difficult draw against two and benefits from a rub on shot stone, nibbling the back button for a key single point.
Dunstone is unable to come back from the late two-point deficit and picks up a second loss, having been upset by the ageless Kevin Koe on Tuesday afternoon.
As such, Brad Jacobs and Co. are into the best-of-three final series beginning Saturday. They’ve got two chances to win the Trials and go to Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy.
The saving grace for Dunstone fans is that John Epping GTA/Sudbury squad played spoiler and with a decisive 8-4 win, dropping Koe to 3-3.
Meanwhile, across the arena, Gushue was in control, leading 5-3 at the break but a three-ender by Mike McEwen in the sixth followed by steals in seven and eight flipped the script.
Brad continued to fight. He scored two and in the end, forced McEwen to make a delicate double tap on his last to score a single and win the game, avoiding an extra end.
The stage is set for tonight’s deciding final men’s draw. Koe vs Rylan Kleiter, Dunstone vs McEwen and Gushue vs Jacobs.
Let’s examine what can happen.
A Gushue loss to Jacobs could bring three losses into the mix, but Kevin Koe ranks a distant seventh in LSD (Last Stone Draws). A win by Koe over Kleiter combined with losses by Gushue and Dunstone creates a three-way tie for third with each team 1-1 in their head-to-head, but Kevin’s 49.06 LSD is too far above Dunstone (28.83) and Gushue (20.73) to give them any chance.
Jacobs' LSD ranks first, ahead of Gushue’s fourth-ranked effort. If Gushue wins, they will hold the head-to-head against Jacobs but have lost to both Mike and Matt, so LSD enters the mix regardless of the outcome between McEwen and Dunstone – as three teams would be at 5-2 with (wait for it) 1-1 head-to-head records in their respective games.
Curling Canada has helped with the math and Gushue can’t get first place because 9.96 cm disparity at this late stage is too far to overcome.
Gushue still needs a victory to ensure a place in the semifinal. Both Dunstone and McEwen have the head-to-head against Gushue, so a loss to Jacobs combined with a loss by Koe will have Brad Gushue waving goodbye, failing to make the playoffs for the first time in four trips to the Canadian Olympic Trials. Brad also falls short with a loss and wins by Koe and Dunstone as McEwen defeated Gushue earlier in the day and Koe is 0-2 against both of them.
Are we having fun yet?
For Mike and Matt, two skips raised in Manitoba, a win guarantees a semifinal date on Thursday. If Dunstone loses, they need a Kleiter victory combined with a win by Jacobs over Gushue in order to advance. McEwen advances with a loss if Gushue also loses.
My predictions?
Gushue loses the (67th) battle of the Brads, Koe wins over Kleiter and Dunstone defeats McEwen for the 10th time in 11 career attempts, going back to the start of the 2024-25 season. Jacobs rests while Dunstone battles McEwen in the semifinal and Gushue begins preparation for the Brier.