Recent (and ancient) history of the men’s Olympic Trials finalists, in advance of Game 1
HALIFAX – The men’s Olympic Trials semifinal may have been one of the most entertaining finishes in curling history, or at least on the short list of greatest 10th ends where a team holds a three-up lead (without hammer).
Fans were still discussing it hours later – some using beer glasses in the local bars – and debating whether it was elite level curling or action from a Wednesday afternoon seniors league.
The outcome, which appeared never/then suddenly in doubt, provided us with the championship series between the two highest-ranked Canadian men’s teams. This is a rematch of the 2025 Brier final, but with a twist: now it’s about the first team to win two games rather than single elimination.
No doubt Matt Dunstone would have wished for a second opportunity last March after a heartbreaking 5-3 loss to Jacobs.
Prior to E.J. Harnden joining the squad, Matt was 1-3 against Brad since the 2021 Trials. This version of Team Dunstone is 4-3 against Jacobs, with two losses being the Brier final and a critical round robin game on Wednesday of this week.
Going back to 2018, Dunstone is 8-23 as a skip against Jacobs. Most of these losses came early in Dunstone’s curling development; there were only three Dunstone victories in their first 12 matchups.
Many of the wins came with Brad skipping a less decorated team than he has this week. Team Jacobs has a combined five Olympic medals: Ben Hebert and Marc Kennedy won gold in 2010 with Kevin Martin, Brad won gold in 2014, and Brett Gallant and Marc (as team alternate for Brad Gushue) won bronze in 2022.
The Jacobs front end from his golden run at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games is now sweeping for his last remaining Trials opponent. Dunstone and third Colton Lott have junior accolades and built up an impressive resume in their twenties. Recent form has been exceptional, reaching the last three Grand Slam finals (winning one) while often dispatching Jacobs in the process.
Dunstone ranks second in the world behind Mouat, with Jacobs close behind in third. Rock Logic podcast regular Ken Pomoroy has them as equal, based on his ratings formula.
Current odds from Coolbet.com have Jacobs at -182 and Dunstone at +136. Sounds considerable until you convert to percentages: 64.5% for Jacobs and 42.4% for Dunstone. Astute readers will recognize the total is not 100%, which is why sports betting is a lucrative business and professional sports leagues are eager to participate.
In games between teams ranked 1-25, starting with hammer equates to a 63.1% winning percentage, per Pomoroy’s charts. This aligns with past studies and the general consensus that elite teams starting with hammer against comparable opponents win about 60% of the time.
It’s conceivable that if Dunstone was starting with hammer, the odds would flip somewhat and be more in Matt’s favour. Dunstone’s greatest challenge to reach the summit on his climb to win a Brier or Trials is probably staying patient, playing loose, like the outcome doesn’t matter, even though it means everything – all the regular sports psychology tropes that are much, much easier said than done.
Think of Dunstone’s mental roller-coaster so far. After blasting out of the hacks to a spotless 4-0 record to start in Halifax, he lost three games in a row, and actually thought he was going home without a playoff berth – until he wasn’t.
The second challenge is winning two of three games when his opponent starts with hammer every time. If we use the 60/40 approximation, that puts Dunstone’s odds at about 35% to go to the Olympics. Most believe their chances are slightly lower, given the experience of Team Jacobs.
Looking back to Wednesday night and the last-ditch triple attempt by Brad Gushue against Jacobs, Dunstone’s chances were a whole lot less.