LSD Could Factor in Curling Trials Playoffs

by Kevin Palmer

HALIFAX – A sombre atmosphere descended on the Scotiabank Centre as one of the greatest curlers of all time had passed away.

Colleen Jones was a championship curler and national broadcaster well known across Canada. But she is also a Nova Scotia legend who was beloved by many in this community, and her presence will be missed. 

Colleen’s CBC pal Devin Heroux published a heartfelt piece, in which he asked Colleen what she was most proud of. Her answer could and should resonate with all the teams competing here this week, whether their time to win is now or somewhere in the future:

“That gap. The 17 years between my first Scotties win in 1982 and the next one in 1999. Never give up and keep persevering. And enjoy the game. You have to love the ride and the agony of defeat and the thrill of winning.

“I hope people remember the tenaciousness. And hopefully it showed other people what’s possible.”

Tuesday night’s second-to-last women’s draw featured three see-saw games, all with playoff implications in advance of Wednesday afternoon’s climactic women’s draw.

Ottawa’s Rachel Homan was cruising until her final draw in the seventh end came woefully short, and Winnipeg’s Kaitlyn Lawes stole three points to jump ahead 6-5 after trailing by four at the fifth-end break. 

Team Homan steadied their ship, taking two, stealing one and heading to the final frame up two points. 

The 10th end featured more shrapnel than Homan fans desired and after Rachel’s last draw sailed deep, Lawes called timeout and briefly considered if there were options to try a circus shot for three. Eventually she chose the draw for two, along the path Rachel had just thrown. Kaitlyn’s rock also glided past the four foot and the game was suddenly over. 

If Homan had lost, Kerri Einarson (Gimli, Man.) would have secured first place with her victory. 

Speaking of Einarson, her squad had a steadier back and forth affair with Calgary’s Kayla Skrlik. After three blank ends and a single by Einarson in the fourth, each team traded one-point leads with alternating deuces until a force of Skrlik in the ninth end. Einarson held hammer in the 10th in a 5-5 tie and scored her single for the win. 

With Homan’s victory over Lawes, she and Einarson will now play on Wednesday afternoon for a bye into the best-of-three final round. The loser drops to a single-game elimination semifinal.   

The heartbreaker of the night was local favourite Christina Black (title photo) losing to Edmonton’s Selena Sturmay. Black rebounded from dropping three points in the sixth end with deuces in seven and nine to tie the game at 7-7, but was short attempting to bury her final stone in the 10th end – and Sturmay took the win to stay alive. 

A win by Black would have given her Halifax team a spot in the semifinal. Now they need a win on Wednesday afternoon against Winnipeg’s Kate Cameron – and hope for a Sturmay loss to Brown to reach the playoffs. 

One other scenario: Lawes, Sturmay and Black all win and tie at 4-3, and each of them will have a 1-1 record against the other two (guess where this is going). 

Unfortunately, Black’s Last Stone Draw ranking is seventh out of the eight teams. However, their average is 1.55 cm above Sturmay and 2.77 above Lawes. 

Is that close? It sounds like it could be but I’m not sure. I’ve read this page four times and I’m beginning to think LSD is too complicated for someone who long ago created a blog titled “Curl With Math.” 

Never mind my 79-year-old mother who is watching at home. “Kevin, why didn’t they get into the playoffs”? “Well mom, because their triangulation measurement in the fourth game led to their average, after removing two measurements, being 1.73 cm more than the other team.”

Lawes defeated Sturmay in the round robin and a win over Skrlik, coupled with a loss by Black, puts them in the playoffs. Lawes is the front runner for LSD of the three teams so they could survive a win by Black, but only if  Sturmay wins and if  Lawes continues to lead in LSD which, as mentioned, could be very close. 

And maybe they won’t, or maybe it’s not really close, and they likely have it without a monumental collapse in drawing to the button before TSN’s television coverage begins.

My head now hurts from pondering the probabilities (for more on LSD and why Curling Canada adopted it in lieu of tiebreakers, see my Monday column). But let us continue. 

Sturmay’s chances lie with a win over Cameron and a win by Skrlik over Lawes. They also might want to draw really close to the button as well, just in case. It used to be a game of inches, now it’s a target practice of millimetres. 

The hard truth? Any one of these 3-3 teams could have made a few more shots, leapt into the playoffs (to be quickly dispatched by Einarson or Homan) and eliminated this confounding LSD logjam.  

Lawes has three wins out of four against Skrlik. Black and Cameron are 1-1 and Sturmay has lost four out of her last five to Corryn Brown, after owning her for most part (9-5 for Sturmay overall).

My prediction? They all win but Lawes LSD jumps to 37.41, Sturmay and Black tie LSD at 33.27 and per rule, the next largest distance of each team's totals are dropped until the tie is broken, giving Black a spot in the playoffs.